Дублин. Новости с рынка коммерческой недвижимости.

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MarketView: Dublin office market in Q1 2010

Overall Commentary

Activity improved in the Dublin office market in the first three months of 2010, with 24,954m2 of lettings signed in the capital in Q1. This represents a quarterly increase in letting activity in the capital of 26% and a year-on-year increase of 143% compared to Q1 2009, when the Dublin office market experienced the lowest quarterly take-up on record. There were 36 individual office lettings signed in Dublin during Q1 2010, nearly half of which (17 lettings) were larger than 450m2 in size. Three office lettings signed in Q1 2010 were 1,900m2 or larger. This is in contrast to the same period last year, when 31 lettings accounted for only 10,284m2 of office take-up between them.Prime office headline quoting rents in Dublin held steady in the first quarter of 2010 at ?376 per square metre. With rents having declined approximately 44% from peak and Ireland’s corporate tax rate still attractive to international occupiers, demand – as measured by the total requirements for office accommodation in the capital – has grown considerably since the start of 2009, when we saw not only the lowest level of office letting activity in the capital but the most significant contraction in the Irish economy overall. There has been a notable increase in demand in the last few months with a number of new office requirements emerging. This comes at a time when the quantum of new office supply entering the Dublin market is severely restrained, with only what is currently under construction due to come available over the next 18 months and no new schemes scheduled for completion in 2012.

The level of vacancy in the capital fell in Q1 2010 for the first time since 2008. Overall vacancy in Dublin fell 45 basis points to 23% in Q1, although there were minor increases in vacancy in some districts. Several trends are at play. The make-up of the vacant office stock in Dublin continues to shift as occupiers exercise break options and move from older, sometimes obsolete, offices into new “Grade A” accommodation. As they move, the quality of vacant accommodation continues to deteriorate and there is limited ‘net absorption’. However, some occupiers are net takers of space and are helping to slowly erode vacancy. For example, 10 of the office lettings signed in Dublin during Q1 2010, accounting for 10,633 square metres of overall takeup between them, were new entrants into the Dublin office market. A considerable amount of stock under construction around the city is already pre-let and won’t ultimately end up in vacancy calculations. In addition, the lack of new speculative accommodation coming on stream should help to slowly erode the level of vacancy in the market. However, the stock of new office accommodation will decline first meaning that any upward movement in rental values will be limited to this sector while rents for older accommodation in need of refurbishment are likely to continue to come under pressure.

Continued stability in office yields has attracted increased investor interest in office assets in recent months. However, as yet, this has not translated into completed transactions. Almost ?19.5 million of investment transactions were signed in Ireland during Q1 2010 although none of these transactions comprised office investments.

Although take-up in the Dublin office sector during the first three months of 2010 was less than the average for Q1 over the last number of years, it was considerably better than that achieved in the same period last year. There were 36 lettings completed in the quarter and there are a number of large requirements now emerging which is very encouraging. In terms of the number of lettings signed (24) and the quantum of office accommodation leased (13,244m2), the city centre region accounted for the majority (53%) of take-up activity in Dublin during Q1 2010. It is important to point out that the majority of lettings signed in the capital during the first three months of the year were 465m2 or smaller in size. Indeed, these smaller lettings accounted for aggregate take-up of 4,173m2. There were no lettings larger than 4,645m2 signed in Dublin during Q1. However, there has been a notable improvement in demand in recent months with a number of large requirements being activated which will translate into letting activity over the course of the next 12 months. Overall outstanding requirements increased significantly in Q1 2010 to more than 110,000m2. A third of these requirements are for 4,645m2 or larger and a further 25% of these requirements are for office accommodation ranging between 1,858m2 and 4,645m2. Demand remains focussed on the city centre, with 73% of outstanding requirements focussed on securing premises in this district. The overall vacancy rate for Dublin fell slightly in Q1 2010, but still remains high relative to many other European markets at 23%. Our research indicates that total vacant stock in the city fell by just over 12,000m2 to 809,000m2 at the end of the first quarter. Underlying this falling vacant stock is a fall in Grade A stock of 10,675m2, while second-hand vacant stock has increased by 6,100m2. There is a continued shift in the make-up of vacant stock in Dublin towards second-hand accommodation, as occupiers exercise break options and move operations into newer accommodation to avail of current deals. It remains to be seen if the decline in the overall vacancy rate experienced in the last three months is indicative of a trend. Although there is very little new office accommodation due to come on stream for the foreseeable future, without continued inward investment, absorption of vacant accommodation will be slow. The only new supply that came on stream in Dublin in the first three months of 2010 was located in the west suburbs, where 10,500m2 of new office buildings completed. There remains 80,000m2 of office development under construction and scheduled for completion in 2010, with a further 32,000m2 under construction and scheduled for completion in 2011 and no new office schemes in the pipeline for 2012. Lettings to hi-tech and computer services tenants accounted for the largest single proportion of take-up in Dublin during Q1 2010, accounting for 8,715m2or almost 35% of lettings signed in the period. The manufacturing & industrial sector, which has not been highly active in the office market in recent quarters, accounted for 22% of take-up in Dublin during Q1, while business services tenants accounted for 28% of letting activity. The remaining tenant categories – financial services, professional services, public sector and consumer services – all accounted for only 15% of take-up between then in the last three months. There are a number of office properties currently reserved, which bodes well for take-up later this year. Much of the activity is coming from occupiers who are taking advantage of the value in the market at present and a large proportion of demand is emanating from the IT and pharmaceutical sectors. There are a number of outstanding requirements for new office accommodation in Dublin from companies such as The Central Bank, ESB, Yahoo and LinkedIn, which is encouraging. Bord Gais has agreed to lease over 5,000m2 in a new office building at One Warrington Place in Dublin 2.

CITY CENTRE MARKET

The city centre remains the preferred location for office occupiers in the Dublin market as was again evidenced in Q1 2010. The city centre accounted for 53% of overall office take-up in Dublin during Q1, with 13,224m2 of lettings signed in the city during this period. This translates into an increase in letting activity in the city centre of 3% on a quarterly basis and a 127% increase on the letting activity seen in the city centre during the same period last year (albeit from a much lower base). Dublin 2/4 accounted for not only the largest number of transactions, but the lion’s share of city centre take-up during Q1. More than 70% of the city centre take-up recorded in Q1 occurred in Dublin 2/4, with 19 out of the 24 city centre lettings signed during the period being in this sub-market. One of the largest lettings signed in Q1 occurred in the Dublin 2/4 district at 1,957m2 The rest of the lettings in Dublin 2/4 were smaller than 929m2 in size. Vacancy in Dublin city centre held steady in Q1 2010 at 23%, on par with the overall vacancy rate in the capital. Dublin 2/4, however, saw a slight increase in its vacancy rate to 17.3% in Q1 2010. The majority of the vacant stock in Dublin city centre remains high quality, with Grade A vacant stock accounting for 68% of the vacant stock in the city centre. There remains a unique problem for the city centre in this regard: demand for office accommodation remains focussed on the city centre, particularly Dublin 2/4. However, there are only four or five sites that could accommodate a largescale international occupier looking to locate in the city centre. Much of the vacant stock in Dublin 2/4 comprises floors in various buildings. Indeed, the largest proportion (58%) of vacant office stock in the city centre at present comprises accommodation that extends to less than 465m2 in size. Our research indicates that there is more than 58,000m2 of office stock under construction and scheduled for completion in the city centre before the end of the year. Of this stock
under construction, 48,000m2 of it is located in Dublin 2/4. Importantly, 57% of the office development under construction in the city centre at present is already pre-let, meaning the net supply forecast to enter the market vacant in 2010 at this time is only 24,700m2. Prime headline quoting rents in the city centre remained stable in Q1 2010 at ?376 per square metre.

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SUBURBAN MARKET

Office take-up in the Dublin suburbs was 11,730m2 in Q1 2010, equating 47% of gross take-up in the period. This was considerably better than the level of take-up achieved in the suburbs of Dublin in recent quarters. The south suburbs accounted for the largest proportion of the take-up, with 6,916m2 of lettings signed in the south suburbs during Q1.
The rest of the take-up occurred primarily in the west suburbs, with only a single letting of 134m2 signed in the north suburbs during the first three months of the year. There were 12 individual lettings signed in the suburbs in the period, of which the south suburbs accounted for 9. The largest suburban letting occurred in the south suburbs, where 4,440m2 was let to Dun & Bradstreet at The Chase in Sandyford. Another significant letting occurred in the west suburbs, where 3,600m2 was let to Kerry Foods at Belgard House, Belgard Square, Tallaght. More than half (7) of the
remaining lettings signed in the suburbs during Q1 comprised small lettings which extended to less than 465m2 in size. The computers/hi-tech sector accounted for 41% of office take-up in the suburbs in the period. A further 32% of suburban take-up was accounted for by the manufacturing, industrial & energy sector, while another 24% was accounted for by lettings to the business services sector. Vacancy remains an issue for the suburbs in general, although vacancy in the south suburbs and in the suburbs overall fell in Q1 2010. The total vacant suburban office stock fell to just over 330,000m2 in Q1 2010, and brought the suburban vacancy rate from 23.6% at the end of 2009 down to 22.9% in Q1 2010. The south suburbs vacancy rate fell from 13.7% to 13%. The real problem of vacancy for the suburban market lies in the north and west suburbs, where the vacant stock is for the most part new and of high specification. Supply, as in the rest of the city, has been reined in significantly. The only new suburban office supply to complete in Q1 2010 was located in the west suburbs, where 10,500m2 of new space was completed. A further 21,670m2 of office development remains under construction and scheduled for completion in 2010, while a further 13,127m2 is scheduled for completion in 2011. The vast majority of this stock (86%) is under construction in the south suburbs. Prime headline rents in the suburbs held steady in Q1 2010 at ?215 per square metre.

INVESTMENT

From a position in 2009, when the volume of transactional activity in the Irish investment market fell to a record low of just ?92 million, there has been a notable improvement in sentiment in the Irish investment market in the first three months of 2010. Although debt funding is still extremely difficult to obtain, it is widely expected that transaction volumes will improve significantly over the course of the coming months. Although only ?19 million of investment transactions were signed during the first three months of 2010, this is set to increase over coming quarters with as much as ?500 million of investment transactions currently being negotiated in the Irish market. None of the investment transactions signed in Q1 2010 in the Irish market comprised office transactions. In contrast to the UK, total returns in the Irish investment market are still negative, (the most recent IPD data showed a deterioration of 2.9% in total returns in Q4 2009). However, performance prospects in the Irish market have improved significantly in recent months and we expect to see average values eventually bottoming out at approximately 60% from peak, with office values experiencing a peak-to-trough decline of 50% on average. Prime yields are now stable in all sectors with prime retail, office and industrial yields potentially trending a little stronger over the coming months, despite the fact that rental pressures remain in the occupier markets. Prime office yields remain stable at approximately 7.5%. There is still uncertainty regarding secondary yields in all sectors however, with investor demand purely focussed on prime investment properties in core locations. A growing trend is the increase in the number of international investors looking for investment opportunities in a market that has heretofore been dominated by local purchasers. To date, most of the transactions that have been completed or are being negotiated comprise prime retail investments although a number of prime office investments are currently being pursued. In addition to the FRI lease structure, long leases and Eurodenominated loans, the very significant arbitrage between current yields and the cost of funding is attracting considerable investor interest, most notably from overseas investors who heretofore did not invest in the Irish market. The fact that prime yields are now higher than their long-term average is of particular interest to these investors. A number of buildings are currently under offer and a buyer who was close to signing a deal on a portfolio of Dublin 2 office investments, which was being offered for sale by Irish Life, was recently gazumped by an overseas buyer for a price believed to be in the order of ?52 million at a yield of approximately 8.25%. There is considerable overseas interest in the Irish investment market, primarily emanating from investors who see upside potential in Ireland considering the yield profile. There is also considerable demand from overseas investors who have an interest in purchasing or asset managing some of the investment properties which now form part of the National Asset Management (NAMA) portfolio. Prime yields have firmly stabilised in all sectors of the Irish market, and the most recent data from the Investment Property Databank (IPD), confirms that total returns in the Irish market actually increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2010 – the first positive return in over two years, which is encouraging.

Prime Yields

Retail (High Street) 6.50%
Retail (Shopping Centre) 8.50%
Office 7.50%
Retail Warehouse 8.50%
Industrial 9.00%

MAJOR DUBLIN OFFICE LETTINGS Q1 2010

Occupier District Size (M2) Property

Dun & Bradstreet South Suburbs 4440 The Chase
Kerry Foods West Suburbs 3600 Belgard House
Ergo Dublin 1/3/7 1099 Eastpoint Block T
Pacemetrics Dublin 1/3/7 1099 Eastpoint Block T
Globoforce West Suburbs 1080 Parkwest Block 21
Gala Dublin 6/8 1022 The Chancery Building
Maxim Dublin 6/8 913 Beaver House
Institute of Education Dublin 2/4 858 86/88 Leeson Street

Prime Headline Office Rents

City Centre ? 376 per m2
South Suburbs ? 193 per m2
North Suburbs ? 172 per m2
West Suburbs ? 161 per m2

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MarketView: Dublin Retail market in Q1 2010

Prime Retail Zone A Rents

Grafton Street ? 6,000 per m2
Henry Street ? 5,500 per m2
Liffey Valley ? 3,500 per m2
Dundrum ? 3,500 per m2
Blanchardstown ? 3,200 per m2
St. Stephen’s Green ? 2,000 per m2
The Square ? 1,750 per m2
Secondary City Centre ? 1,000 per m2
Prime Retail Warehouses ? 242 per m2

While conditions remain very challenging in the retail sector, retailers report that there has been some improvement in activity in recent weeks. Indeed, the most recent release from the Central Statistics Office confirms that retail sales were up 3.0% in February compared to the same month last year, helped to a large degree by an improvement in motor sales. Based on profit statements released recently, it seems some sectors of retail are performing well despite the economic backdrop. From a property perspective, retailers continue to seek out opportunities in the Irish market and a number of operators are aggressively looking for sites and store locations to facilitate expansion. Both Aldi and Lidl remain aggressive; Boots have said they hope to open five new stores in the Irish market over the coming months while the Barry Group are planning to open a number of stores later this year under the BuyLo brand. The UK retailer WH Smith will open 3 new shops at the new Terminal 2 facility at Dublin Airport when it opens in November. In Dublin city centre, Cult Clothing is now trading on Suffolk Street; Compu-b has opened a store on Grafton Street while Portwest are currently fitting out a flagship store on Suffolk Street. Planning was granted recently for the revised ‘Dublin Central’ scheme on O’Connell Street. The developers have been given seven years, as opposed to the usual five, to complete the development. In Galway, planning permission has been granted to redevelop the Headford Road shopping centre. While retailers entering new leases can avail of competitive terms and conditions in the current climate, retailers who signed leases at the peak of the market continue to struggle with high rental costs. An example of this is the Besteller Group, which is currently trying to get released from lease agreements on 14 of their stores in Ireland as a result of unsustainable rental levels. Similarly, Blarney Woolen Mills have recently closed their store on Dublin’s Nassau Street having failed to negotiate a rental reduction with their landlord. Against this backdrop, the Government has established a working group to address the issue of transparency in commercial rent reviews. This group are due to report their findings by the end of June.

MarketView: Dublin industrial market in Q1 2010

OVERVIEW

An impressive 57,868m2 of take-up was achieved in the Dublin industrial market in Q1 2010. This level of letting activity was above the average quarterly take-up achieved in this sector over the past two years and is an improvement on both a quarterly and annual basis. Compared to the previous quarter, when take-up was skewed to some extent by one large letting, take-up in the Dublin industrial market grew by 8% in Q1 2010. At nearly 58,000m2, the Q1 take-up is approximately three times the quantum of activity achieved in the same period year when the economy was experiencing its sharpest rate of contraction. Continuing a trend we’ve been observing for several quarters now, 99% of the take-up of Dublin industrial space during Q1 comprised lettings as opposed to sales, which is perhaps not surprising in the current environment. Take-up of industrial accommodation was mostly concentrated in the northern suburbs of Dublin, with 48% of overall take-up located in the Dublin North East (N1/M1) district and a further 31% of take-up in the first quarter of the year located in the Dublin North West (N3) district. The Dublin South West districts along the N7 and N81 corridors, only accounted for 11% of industrial takeup in Q1 2010, in contrast to recent quarters when both demand and take-up have been focussed there. There were 32 individual industrial lettings signed in the Dublin market in Q1 2010. The majority of these (17 lettings) were small lettings of less than 465m2 in size. There were two lettings that extended to more than 9,290m2 in size, both located in the northern districts of the city. One of these lettings was the letting of 18,302m2 at the former Celestica facility in Swords, Co Dublin and the other was a letting of 12,655m2 at the Northwest Business Park along the N3 corridor.

Although take-up in Q1 2010 was primarily located on the north side of the city, a significant portion of demand for industrial facilities remains focussed on the Dublin South West (N7) district. Of the nearly 110,000m2 of outstanding requirements for industrial accommodation in Dublin, 48,217m2 is focussed on the N7 corridor. More than 20% of existing demand comes from the indigenous services sector, while a further 19% comes from the storage & distribution sector. Prime industrial quoting rents experienced further pressure since the beginning of the year and are now in the order of approximately ?86 per square metre in the Dublin market. Prime industrial yields remained stable in the period at 9.0%, but there were no industrial investment transactions completed in the first quarter of the year. A prime 1,160m2 building with road frontage to the M50 at the N2 junction at North Park is about to come to the market guiding ?97 per square metre. This modern facility, which boasts 12 metre clear internal height and 3 storey office accommodation, will be a good test of the market. Transactions concluded recently include the letting to Masterlink of 4,121m2 at Furry Park and the letting to the OPW of the former Celestica facility in Swords, which extends to more than 18,000m2. Outside of Dublin, the most significant transaction concluded recently was the letting of approximately 18,000m2 of warehouse accommodation to DSV at Tougher Business Park in Kildare.

Major Industrial Transactions Q1 2010

Property District Size Type

Former Celestica, Balheary Road Dublin North East (N1/M1) 18,302 Letting
Northwest Business Park Dublin North West (N3) 12,655 Letting
Furry Park, Santry Dublin North East (N1/M1) 4,121 Letting
Orion Business Campus Dublin North West (N3) 4,116 Letting
Clonshaugh Industrial Estate Dublin North East (N1/M1) 3,252 Letting

http://www.cbre.ie/ie_en/research/re...Q1_Offices.pdf

http://www.cbre.ie/ie_en/research/re...20Bulletin.pdf

http://www.cbre.ie/ie_en/research/re...2010%20IRL.pdf

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В тему:

PRIME RETAIL RENTS STABILISE ACROSS GLOBAL MARKETS



London, 21 May 2010 – Prime retail rents in the world’s leading shopping destinations stabilised in the majority of markets, and grew in a number of major cities, in the first quarter (Q1) of 2010, according to the latest CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Global MarketView report on the retail sector. As the global economic recovery begins to gather momentum, consumer and retailer confidence have started to improve. Whilst this has still not translated into retail sales growth in most markets, demand for prime retail space remains healthy and vacancy in the best locations is low. As a result, there are some markets globally where prime rents are rising, and many more where the rate of decline has slowed or rents are now stable.

New York City remains the world’s most expensive retail destination, with prime rents at US$1,725 per sq ft per annum. Sydney remains in second place globally (US$1,155/sq ft/annum), with Hong Kong ranked third (US$974/sq ft/annum). London remains in fourth place, after recording a 20% annual increase in rents since the first quarter of 2009, with ongoing strong demand and low vacancy rates in the prime locations. Paris rounds out the top five locations with rents of US$791/sq ft/annum. Interestingly, some of the fastest growing retail rents have been seen in Latin America, with markets such as Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City and Santiago showing significant quarterly and annual increases.

http://www.cbre.ie/ie_en/news_events...GLOBAL_MARKETS

EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TO REACH MORE THAN ?100B IN 2010

London, 18 May 2010 – European commercial real estate investment turnover is expected to reach more than ?100 billion in 2010, a significant increase on the ?73 billion reported in 2009, according to the latest CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) European Capital Markets report. Trends in the European real estate market so far in 2010 have been increasingly positive, although largely confined to the prime segment of the market, with increasing lender confidence, value recovery, and growing investor demand all helping to drive transaction volumes and size.

The improvement in the lending market is particularly notable. Whilst there have been relatively few changes to key lending terms, there are some signs of greater lender confidence. These include growth in the availability of development finance and the offer of mezzanine finance at a more attractive price. The latter is particularly important, as it reflects the trend that both investor and lender interest in value-add and better quality secondary opportunities is starting to increase. As senior debt lending remains conservative, more opportunistic buyers will be looking to finance using a combination of senior and mezzanine debt.

While CBRE expects the European property investment market to see more than ?100 billion transacted in 2010, the extent to which value-add and opportunistic investment increases will have a large bearing on the actual outcome. Thus far, the UK and increasingly France have been the two markets to see investor demand expand into these secondary segments. Now, however, there are the first signs that other major western European markets are also starting to attract more opportunistic buyers.

Jonathan Hull, Executive Director of EMEA Capital Markets, CB Richard Ellis, said: “Restricted by lack of product, a lot of investor demand remains unsatisfied, prompting investors to start actively considering value-add opportunities. Driven by either better economic and occupier fundamentals or simply by a distressed opportunity, a number of value-add investors have made their first acquisitions in western European markets other than the UK and France. Germany, Poland and Spain look to be the next group of markets where the recovery in investment activity in the value-add segment of the market is expected later this year and into next year.”

http://www.cbre.ie/ie_en/news_events..._?100B_IN_2010

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THE DEVELOPMENT LAND MARKET

The focus of attention in the development land sector in recent weeks was on the transfer of the first tranche of property loans to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Approximately ?16.5 billion of property loans have now transferred over to NAMA at an average discount of close to 50%. According to NAMA’s report, approximately 15% (by value) of these loans relate to development land. NAMA are now engaging with the Top 10 developers of each of the five participating financial institutions as they prepare their business plans. We continue to see a number of sites being offered for sale on the instructions of receivers and liquidators. Sale completions are however still few and far between with potential buyers limited to those prepared to invest cash funds to secure sites. A number of retail site sales are proceeding subject to planning but have not yet completed. Two sites that sold recently include a 13 acre residential site in Carrickmacross, Co. Monaghan, which sold for approximately ?77,000 per acre and a town centre site in Waterford, which sold for approximately ?60,000 per acre. An interesting opportunity has just come to the market on Appian Way in Dublin. The site has planning permission for nine residential units and is being offered for sale guiding ?1 million, which will be a good test of the Dublin market. The Health Services Executive (HSE) has announced an intention to sell up to 57 vacant properties around the country, some of which will release prominent regional sites to the market. From a planning perspective, the draft Fingal Development Plan has now gone on display with any objections or observations having to be made by June 14th. An increasing number of local authorities are re-appraising their zoning strategies for development. For example, more than 250 acres of land zoned for development in Gorey, Co. Wexford in 2002 is to be dezoned under the towns new Local Area Plan. The town council in Ennis, Co. Clare have not dezoned any land but have instead announced details of a phasing plan to control the development of housing in the town.

THE HOTELS & LICENSED MARKET

Following two years of very little activity in the hotel property sector, primarily due to a lack of bank funding, the sale of Chief O’Neill’s Hotel in Smithfield in Dublin 7 has now completed for between ?8 million and ?9 million. The good news for the market is that the purchaser is an international company seeking Dublin representation and they are a cash buyer. Funding for the hotel sector remains difficult to source. However, as more banks realise that hotel sales can be achieved if they remain on board to fund the new purchasers - on realistic commercial terms - we expect to see a number of other hotel sales completing over the course of the coming months. There is still genuine appetite for good hotel properties in prime locations subject to realistic pricing and the availability of funding. It is understood that NAMA has commissioned an assessment of the Irish hotel market considering the large number of hotels that will now come under their remit. While it is likely to take some time to determine which hotels will be supported in the long term, it is encouraging that this process has now started following months of speculation. Hotel properties offered publicly for sale in recent weeks include the Kilkea Castle Hotel in Co Kildare, which has a guide price of ?16 million; the Kincora Hall Hotel in Killaloe, Co. Clare, which is on the market guiding ?3 million and the Carrigart Hotel in Donegal which is guiding ?1.5 million. In addition, Gerry Gannon’s 49% interest in the K Club has been offered for sale with a reported price of ?60 million. Unfortunately, a number of good hotel properties are suffering because of their association with other developments, a case in point being the successful Fota Island Hotel in Cork, which has gone into receivership in recent weeks. Sheraton no longer operates this hotel while another international brand Marriott has recently announced their departure from the Druids Glen Golf Resort in Wicklow. The disruption of flights due to the volcanic ash crisis in recent weeks has been disastrous for Ireland’s hotel industry at a time when the market is already facing huge pressures. The latest STR Global figures for Dublin indicate that Revpar for Q1 was down 13% on the same period in 2009. However, the city had a good performance in the month of March, with Revpar up 3.3% in the month as a result of much stronger occupancy. The decision by the Government to introduce a new scheme allowing all visitors aged over 66 from anywhere in the world to travel free of change on mainline, DART and commuter trains is however very welcome and may encourage more overseas visitors to Ireland this year. Outside of Ireland, hotel transaction volumes in the US have improved considerably year-on-year and there is strong interest in the prestigious Grosvenor House Hotel in London, which we are currently marketing, guiding in excess of £500 million. Conditions in the Irish licensed sector remain difficult and the Drinks Industry Group of Ireland has said that 15,000 people have lost their jobs in this sector in the last 18 months. The Tweedy group of bars and nightclubs in Waterford is the latest group to be liquidated. There are no pub sale transactions being completed with the focus of attention on leasing. The former Spawell premises in Templeogue have been leased in recent weeks. The property, which will trade as Darcy McGee’s, generated considerable interest due to its size and location. A letting has also been agreed recently on The Viper Room on Aston Quay in Temple Bar.

[Georgio]

Столько много букаф... О чём там, в двух словах? Жить стало ещё лучше?

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Сообщение от Georgio

Жить стало ещё лучше?

Жить стало веселее

В общих словах: ирландский рынок коммерческой недвижимости начинает потихоньку просыпаться и снова начинает привлекать местных и иностранных инвесторов и арендаторов.

При этом в среднем аренда 1-го квадратного метра офисной площади в Дублине в 4.5 раза дешевле чем в НюЁрке, более чем в 3 раза дешевле чем в Сиднее, примерно в 2.5 раза дешевле чем в Лондоне, более чем в 2 раза дешевле чем в Париже, почти в 2 раза дешевле чем в Москве, и в 1.5 раза дешевле чем в Гуанчжоу (Китай). Это делает Дублин привлекательным для аренды офисных площадей и открытия здесь различных представительств, а значит и создания новых рабочих мест.

[D_IRL]

Сообщение от ZigZag

Жить стало веселее

В общих словах: ирландский рынок коммерческой недвижимости начинает потихоньку просыпаться и снова начинает привлекать местных и иностранных инвесторов и арендаторов.

При этом в среднем аренда 1-го квадратного метра офисной площади в Дублине в 4.5 раза дешевле чем в НюЁрке, более чем в 3 раза дешевле чем в Сиднее, примерно в 2.5 раза дешевле чем в Лондоне, более чем в 2 раза дешевле чем в Париже, почти в 2 раза дешевле чем в Москве, и в 1.5 раза дешевле чем в Гуанчжоу (Китай). Это делает Дублин привлекательным для аренды офисных площадей и открытия здесь различных представительств, а значит и создания новых рабочих мест.

Проедьте и пройдите по торговым центрам (не в самом центре только) и по бизнес-паркам вокруг Дублина. Увидите совсем противоположную картьину - упадок и запустение с сотнями закрытых магазинов и магазинчиков и коммерческой недвижимости - бери-нехочу даже по низким ценам.

[Yapi]

Это всё замечательно, но пока что дешевеющий рынок коммерческой недвижимости говорит лишь о том что бизнессы стремительно закрываются или съезжают. Именно о том-же мне говорят мои глаза когда я вижу два года пустующие офисы в Blackrock, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin 2, Dublin 4 etc. О том-же тоскливо поют газеты когда неохотно освещают очередные job cuts. В сегодняшнем Метро проскользнула очередная новость о 780 рабочих местах сокращённых Pfizer.

[ZigZag]

Сообщение от D_IRL

Проедьте и пройдите по торговым центрам (не в самом центре только) и по бизнес-паркам вокруг Дублина. Увидите совсем противоположную картьину - упадок и запустение с сотнями закрытых магазинов и магазинчиков и коммерческой недвижимости - бери-нехочу даже по низким ценам.

1) разговор идёт только о Дублине

2) как раз и говорится о том что за последние 2-3 года цены на комерческую недвижимость просели минимум на 40% (а то и больше), и теперь она становится снова привлекательной для потенциальных инвесторов, которые (пока ещё рынок не проснулся) смогут выбирать и поторговаться. Аналогично и среди арендаторов, сейчас пока ещё можно выторговать очень дешёвый рент (смешно, но рент в Москве и Киеве сейчас выше чем в Дублине), но по мере просыпания рынка аренды (которое уже происходит) эта ситуация начнёт меняться и со временем рент снова пойдёт вверх в местах наибольшей популярности

3) Я надеюсь что вам известно понятие сегментации. Так вот если сдача в аренду офисного помещения в центре Дублина может принести около 300-400 евро в год за 1 кв метр, то на окраине/пригороде Дублина она даст не более 150 евро в год, при этом сдача в аренду в наиболее пристижных центровых обьектах недвижимости почти не задерживается, а на окраине есть обьекты которые не сдаются не только неделями, но и месяцами. И это вполне нормально, тем более на закате самого сильного за последние 80 лет глобального финансово-экономического кризиса.

4) Умный инвестор покупает именно сейчас (или в самое ближайшее время) пока ещё можно выторговать приличный дискаунт и есть огромный выбор обьектов коммерческой недвижимости для покупки. Уже через 2-3 года этого не будет (по Дублину) и потенциальному инвестору придётся покупать только из того что останется на рынке и без каких-либо надежд на дискаунт.

[vadzen]

Сообщение от ZigZag

4) Умный инвестор покупает именно сейчас (или в самое ближайшее время) пока ещё можно выторговать приличный дискаунт и есть огромный выбор обьектов коммерческой недвижимости для покупки.

Умный продавец пытается продать хотя бы сейчас.

[ZigZag]

Сообщение от Yapi

Это всё замечательно, но пока что дешевеющий рынок коммерческой недвижимости говорит лишь о том что бизнессы стремительно закрываются или съезжают. Именно о том-же мне говорят мои глаза когда я вижу два года пустующие офисы в Blackrock, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin 2, Dublin 4 etc. О том-же тоскливо поют газеты когда неохотно освещают очередные job cuts. В сегодняшнем Метро проскользнула очередная новость о 780 рабочих местах сокращённых Pfizer.

1) То что они пустуют вовсе не означает что по ним не ведутся переговоры. Вполне возможно что помещения о которых вы говорите не являются особо привлекательными. В D4 есть очень много помещений, которые ещё достраиваются и с виду пустые, но на деле уже сданы и будут заполнены по мере окончания строительства.

2) Не забывайте и о понятии инерционности: хотя позитивные сигналы во-всю идут уже сейчас, их видимые результаты докатятся в массы не раньше чем через 6-12 месяцев

2) Сокращение Пфайзера мы уже обсудили пару дней назад в теме про Позитив. Во-первых, оно не немедленное, а будет растянуто на 3.5 года, начнётся только лишь через 18 месяцев, и будет размыто на 4 адреса. Во-вторых, сейчас идут разговоры о том чтобы просто продать 3 из 4 этих подразделений другим компаниям и сохранить большинство мест за сотрудниками. В-третьих, насколько я понимаю Пфайзер в основном занимает индустриальные, а не офисные или ритейловые помещения.

ZigZag добавил 21.05.2010 в 17:44

Сообщение от vadzen

Умный продавец пытается продать хотя бы сейчас.

Умный продавец продал ещё в 2006 году. А умный покупатель покупает сейчас.

[D_IRL]

Сообщение от ZigZag

1) разговор идёт только о Дублине

2) как раз и говорится о том что за последние 2-3 года цены на комерческую недвижимость просели минимум на 40% (а то и больше), и теперь она становится снова привлекательной для потенциальных инвесторов, которые (пока ещё рынок не проснулся) смогут выбирать и поторговаться. Аналогично и среди арендаторов, сейчас пока ещё можно выторговать очень дешёвый рент (смешно, но рент в Москве и Киеве сейчас выше чем в Дублине), но по мере просыпания рынка аренды (которое уже происходит) эта ситуация начнёт меняться и со временем рент снова пойдёт вверх в местах наибольшей популярности

3) Я надеюсь что вам известно понятие сегментации. Так вот если сдача в аренду офисного помещения в центре Дублина может принести около 300-400 евро в год за 1 кв метр, то на окраине/пригороде Дублина она даст не более 150 евро в год, при этом сдача в аренду в наиболее пристижных центровых обьектах недвижимости почти не задерживается, а на окраине есть обьекты которые не сдаются не только неделями, но и месяцами. И это вполне нормально, тем более на закате самого сильного за последние 80 лет глобального финансово-экономического кризиса.

4) Умный инвестор покупает именно сейчас (или в самое ближайшее время) пока ещё можно выторговать приличный дискаунт и есть огромный выбор обьектов коммерческой недвижимости для покупки. Уже через 2-3 года этого не будет (по Дублину) и потенциальному инвестору придётся покупать только из того что останется на рынке и без каких-либо надежд на дискаунт.

Отстаете - в моем не престижном районе офисная площадь и сейчас под 2000 евро в год за один кв метр. Пормещение 10 м2 - 20000 евро!

[ZigZag]

Сообщение от D_IRL

Отстаете - в моем не престижном районе офисная площадь и сейчас под 2000 евро в год за один кв метр. Пормещение 10 м2 - 20000 евро!

1) Офисная или ритэйловая? Ритейловая идёт намного дороже (в среднем раз в 8 дороже).

2) Разговор идёт о средних цифрах а не единичных

3) Возможно что такой высокий рент сохранился ещё со времени бума (2005-06)?

[D_IRL]

Сообщение от ZigZag

1) Офисная или ритэйловая? Ритейловая идёт намного дороже (в среднем раз в 8 дороже).

2) Разговор идёт о средних цифрах а не единичных

3) Возможно что такой высокий рент сохранился ещё со времени бума (2005-06)?

Именно офисная - которая в центре этого микрорайона (возле торгового центра и где куча прохожих-потенциальных клиентов). В старом здании и свободных площадей снять нет.

Но в километре - новые (2-3 года) современные офисные здания сейчас пустые и полупустые, хоть и дешево. Но там нет столько прохожих - возможных клиентов.