Irish prosperity 'under threat' from costs

[Apple]

Irish prosperity 'under threat' from costs

The cost of doing business in Ireland is slowly eroding the Celtic Tiger boom, it was claimed today.


Last Updated: 26/07/2007 10:08

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/bre...breaking32.htm


In its latest quarterly economic bulletin, Friends First said that overall competitiveness in the economy has been reduced during the past five years.

Chief economist Jim Power said a combination of factors, including higher general inflation; strong growth in wages; adverse exchange rate movements; increased congestion and a significant increase in the cost of state services has resulted in a significant increase in the cost of doing business.

"The loss of competitiveness has started to impact on Ireland's export performance, and growth in merchandise exports has slowed down dramatically over the last five years," he said. "This slowdown in export growth marks a major change from the conditions that characterised the Celtic Tiger period.

Friends First predicted in that the first two years of the new Government will be more testing than any time over the past decade. The bank said the sharp slowdown in housing activity will also put pressure on tax revenues and jobs in the economy.

Mr Power said the Government will have to lower costs and improve competitiveness by controlling public spending and public sector pay.

He said inflation is likely to have peaked at 5.1 per cent earlier this year and an overall average rate of 4.7 per cent is expected for 2007.

In 2008, GDP growth is expected to fall back again to 3.8 per cent — the lowest growth rate in 15 years.

As a result, the Government may deliver a more cautious Budget in December than might have been expected.

"All the evidence suggests that Ireland remains vulnerable to a short-term slowdown in the construction industry," said Mr Power. "In 2006, residential housing activity accounted for 64 per cent of total output in the construction sector.

Employment in construction accounts for 13.6 per cent of total employment in Ireland. "Over 93,000 houses were built in 2006, and with completions likely to ease back to 70,000 next year, there will be an obvious knock-on impact on employment.

The Live Register reached 163,400 in June, its highest level in almost three years. Over the past three months, the number of people on the register increased by 5,900, which is the largest jump in four years.

[Mr.Val]

Minister McGuinness welcomes latest trade figures

Minister for Trade and Commerce, Mr. John McGuinness, T.D., expressed satisfaction with the latest trade statistics released today by the CSO. Overall, the trend was upward as exports between January and April 2007, increased by 9% compared to the same period the previous year.

“These figures represent a very good performance by Irish exporters in a difficult trading environment,” Minister McGuinness said.

The Minister was also pleased to note that the Export performance to Asia was particularly heartening, with exports to China and Hong Kong up by 38% and to the Philippines surging ahead with a 106% increase. “Trade between Ireland and China is growing and there is significant growth also in other key emerging markets in Asia. This builds on our work in implementing our ‘Asia Strategy' to improve trade and related links with the major Asian economies" the Minister added.

“Another strong performer was Great Britain one of our oldest and most important markets, which was up 9% on the same time for the previous year”, the Minister concluded.

Mr.Val добавил 26.07.2007 в 23:26
Employment growth moderates in first quarter of 2007

26/07/2007 - 10:26:14

Employment growth is moderating, according to the latest labour market commentary from FAS.

However, the organisation says 77,000 jobs were still filled in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 3.8%.

The largest rise was in construction, while the services sector also saw a significant increase.

FAS also says there are encouraging signs that the manufacturing sector has begun to reverse a five-year trend of negative employment growth.

[vovick]

И с антивоенными протестами надо разобраться - мешают, сцуко, американским инвестициям
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0726/avocent.html

The chief executive of the Avocent Corporation, which employs 160 people in Shannon, has expressed his concern about how the Open Skies policy may affect air access from the US to Shannon.

John Cooper said that in the medium to long-term it could affect the company's investment in Shannon.

The company is a global leaders in the design and manufacture of PC components such as keyboards, and also provides software and security technology.

Mr Cooper was in Shannon addressing shareholders in the company's first AGM to be held outside the US, which mark Avocent's 10 years in Shannon.

He said an important part of its business was easy access for staff and customers from the US to Shannon. Mr Cooper said it would take too much time and therefore add additional costs to access the Shannon plant through Dublin.

In addition, the company has based its single most impressive customer demo centre at the Shannon plant. He said the harder it proves to get there, the less likely the company is to keep that centre in Shannon.

He also expressed corporate America's unease over anti-American sentiment, particularly over the use of Shannon airport by US troops

[Mr.Val]

Martin welcomes Jobs Growth for next 5 years

The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin, TD has welcomed the FÁS/ESRI report forecasting continuing growth in employment over the next five years.

“The fact that employment growth is expected to be much stronger in the more highly skilled occupations shows that the Government policy of providing quality jobs for our people into the future is correct.”

“It is important now that we remain committed to implementing the National Skills Strategy together with the Strategy for Science, Innovation and Technology to provide the means to achieve this goal, with the emphasis on the need for increasing skill levels across the workforce.”

“These strategies set out the clear long term objectives of this Government as what our education and training systems need to deliver if Ireland is to develop competitive advantage in terms of world class skills, education and training. This will involve increasing the skill levels of those in work and ensure those coming through our education system have the talents and skills to fill the jobs of the future.”

Minister Martin also noted that women continue to increase their share in the professional and management occupations and are forecast to form the majority in these occupations by 2012. The Government views this as a very welcome development.

[Anatoli]

эксперты продолжают всех пугать, а Правительство успокаивает.
до 2008 осталось не так много, посмотрим кто из них был прав.

House slowdown sharper than expected
Friday, 3 August 2007 12:16
Goodbody Stockbrokers has lowered its forecast for economic growth next year because of a bigger than expected drop in house building activity. It also believes house prices will fall by 4% this year.

In a new report, the stockbroker has cut its estimate of the number of new homes to be built this year to 75,000, falling to 60,000 in 2008.

Chief economist Dermot O'Leary said the economy's high dependence on the construction sector had been a 'potentially dangerous imbalance'. But he said higher interest rates had triggered a 'surprisingly rapid response' from the building industry, leading to the new forecast.
AdvertisementGoodbody now expects GDP growth of 4.6% this year and just 3.1% in 2008, down from its previous 3.5%.
It also sees a slowdown in construction employment, with a fall of up to 10% in the next two years. Overall employment will grow by 2.4% this year and 0.7% in 2008.
Goodbody expects consumer spending growth to peak at 7% this year, dropping to 3.5% next year.
The stockbroker has also published a survey of mortgage brokers, estate agents and solicitors on the property market. It finds that the mortgage market has remained 'depressed' and the ending of speculation about stamp duty has had little effect.
41% of those surveyed thought house prices would fall in the next 12 months.
The survey found that activity among investors was weakest, while the first-time buyer market was holding up well.
Meanwhile, figures from Homebond show that the number of new homes registered in July was 2,575, a drop of 37% on the same period last year.

[DimaL]

Сообщение от Anatoli

In a new report, the stockbroker has cut its estimate of the number of new homes to be built this year to 75,000, falling to 60,000 in 2008.

Ну элементарно демография показывает, что население не растёт такими темпами. Для кого же строить 90 тыс домов в год? Только вот какие последствия этого снижения строительства? Меньшая занятость в одном секторе на что может повлиять?

[Anatoli]

одно потерянное место в строительстве может привести к потери нескольких(2?-5?) мест в других отраслях
но это не самое страшное, дело в деньгах, инвесторы будут искать лучшее место для вложения

Ирландцы собрали миллиард долларов на китайскую недвижимость
Ирландская девелоперская компания Treasury Holdings приобрела два строительных проекта в Шанхае, сообщает издание Shanghai Daily. Их стоимость оценивается в миллиард долларов, хотя точная сумма сделки сторонами пока не раскрывается.
В конце 2006 года инвесторы также стали собственниками офисного здания Park Center в городе. Для работы на рынке Китая Treasury Holdings основала в 2005 году фонд China Real Estate Opportunities, средства которого должны быть использованы для завершения сделок по семи проектам в Пекине и Шанхае. Их общая цена превышает 800 миллионов долларов.

Treasury Holdings была основана в 1989 году в Дублине и активно работает на развивающихся рынках недвижимости. Активы компании включают проекты в Ирландии, Великобритании, Европе, Китае и России на сумму свыше трех миллиардов евро. В ноябре 2006 года стало известно, что компания намерена вложить 100-150 миллионов евро в строительство многофункционального комплекса "Царскосельский гольф-клуб" под Санкт-Петербургом.