А цены-то падают :)

[Mr.Val]

Сообщение от MS

Экстраполируя по предыдущим месяцам будет -0.4%. Рынок очень инертен, имхо.

Скоро должно стабилизироваться, потом снова либо вверх либо вниз. Как долго решили ждать?

он решил ждать обвала как минимум на 50-70%...долго ждать придется

[Gegemon]

Думаю около -1.7%. Летом все покупали мало.
Теперь все в руках министра финансов - как решит, так и будет

[Mithrilian]

ГДЕ Вильямс написал про 50%? Прочла статью, не увидела.

[vdc]

Сообщение от Mithrilian

ГДЕ Вильямс написал про 50%? Прочла статью, не увидела.

Гемгемон расматривает экстремальный случай, когда все уедут, а он один останется из иммигрантов.
Хотя я сам не понял чего МакВильямса понесло на на такие экстремистские позиции. Если раньше он был ярым союзником МрВала - то теперь он перебрался на гегемонские позиции.

[Gegemon]

Сообщение от vdc

Это что - ожидание что кризис повторится через 20 лет?

[Gegemon]

В-общем цены падают почти везде, и инвесторы летят как фанера над Парижем

Foreign property dreams crash
Irish investors face meltdown as real estate prices plummet throughout Europe and US

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Go By Nick Webb and Louise McBride
Sunday October 21 2007


Tens of thousands of Irish homeowners may be facing financial meltdown as hugely hyped overseas property investments turn sour.


Lured by unrealistic promises of extraordinary returns, Irish investors borrowed heavily to pick up cheap buy-to-let apartments abroad. But property prices in these so called "hotspots" have begun to plummet in recent months.

Along with rising mortgage rates, the strong euro and dismal rental markets, dark clouds are forming for a so- called "Perfect Storm" that could decimate the investment nest eggs of the househunters in the sun.

About 150,000 Irish investors are thought to have bought properties in Spain. However, the oversupply of apartments in Spain's Costa del Sol has pushed the price of some properties down by as much as 20 per cent.

Last month, the Kyero Spanish house price index revealed massive price falls across the country, with the average value of a two-bed home in Mallorca falling ?33,000 to ?292,000 in the past four months.

Similar slumps have been logged in areas from Gran Canaria to Girona and Cadiz. Estate agents are now advertising "price-reduced" homes in almost every region.

The slowdown in the overseas property market comes at a time when Irish investors in properties promoted by Michael Lynn, the solicitor and property developer at the centre of an investigation by the Law Society, are already worried. Some of these investors have paid deposits on overseas property but have not yet secured the title.

"If you look at a typical two-bedroom apartment in the Costa del Sol, its paper value could be about ?250,000," said Darren Costello, managing director of propertyinvestments.ie, a Dublin firm that offers advice on overseas property investment.

"But you'd be hard-pressed to find a buyer for ?200,000."

Bulgaria has been touted as a investment "hotspot" by Irish property promoters. But new figures from investor.bg, reveal that apartment prices in Sunny Beach fell by 4 per cent in July alone.

Similar slumps have been experienced in Ahtopol, Prmorsko and SvetiVlass, as a massive oversupply of tourist apartments remains unsold.

Prices in popular developments such as Sea Dreams Village or the Iglika 1 complex have been reduced by up to one third, according to Icon Properties advertisements. Bulgarian ski resorts such as the hugely hyped Bankso are suffering, with local reports suggesting that the 150 local estate agents have not sold a property there for four months. Yields at some holiday homes and residential developments have tumbled by nearly 40 per cent. Many Irish investors are trapped in Bulgaria, unable to sell properties and struggling to meet mortgage repayments as introductory "guaranteed rental" deals come to an end.

Other hugely popular eastern European or Baltic markets have skidded to a halt, with dramatic price-falls in some countries. Latvia's bubble has well and truly burst, with the Latio Investment agency revealing falls of almost 11 per cent since April.

Estonia and Lithuania have also experienced decreasing property prices. The central statistics office in Poland has also reported values slipping in the second quarter of the year. In Budapest, Hungary, some 3 per cent has been snipped off prices of new apartments, according to the Global Property Guide.

One Irish investor is facing losses of about ?30,000 after buying a Budapest property for about ?79,855 three years ago. The investor, who is now trying to sell his property, was advised that the best sale price he can secure now is ?69,000. By the time he sells the apartment, he will have paid about ?20,000 in fees, taxes and renovations.

The US housing market is also in freefall, fuelled by the sub-prime crisis. The Florida property boom, which lured thousands of Irish fly-to-let investors, has gone into reverse. Investment properties are being advertised with massive reductions all across the state. A property at the Barefoot Beach Resort in Indian Shores has just had $14,000 sliced off its asking price in the past month.

Latest Federal data from the OFHEO reveals that 18 of the largest 20 urban price falls have been experienced in Florida and California. Houseprices in Punta Gorda have plummeted 7.12 per cent this year, with Sarasota and West Palm Beach also tumbling by up to 6 per cent. Property values in New York are also down by a half per cent in the last quarter.

"I know of one case in Florida where the house, which has a paper value of $300,000 (?210,525), is being repossessed," said Darren Costello. "The owner is looking to sell it for $200,000 (?140,350)."

The poor performance of the dollar over the past year has also eaten into the pockets of Irish investors. Since mid-October, the dollar has lost 13 per cent of its value against the euro, according to Gary Connolly, head of fund marketing with Dublin stockbrokers Merrion Capital.

"If you bought a property in the US for $500,000 a year ago, it would have cost you about ?400,000," said Mr Connolly. "Even if the property's value has remained the same since, the fall in the dollar means that you'll only get ?350,000 if you sell it today."

Irish buy-to-let owners of some British properties are also being hit with losses of up to 15 per cent. The over-supply of new apartments in parts of Liverpool, Manchester, Sunderland and Cornwall has made it impossible for some investors to sell off their properties or to rent them out.

The Mediterranean coast of Turkey is also labouring under the weight of unsold properties. Some apartments from Dalaman to Yaikavaa have had prices slashed by as much as 35 per cent.

Properties in Cyprus are also being advertised at "reduced prices", with a new build Coral Bay villa for sale at a massively discounted rate.

Dubai was also hugely popular with Irish buyers. Last week, some apartments in landmark Dubai developments, ranging from the Marina to the Media Zone towers, are on sale with prices reduced by as much as 10 per cent.

One ?89,000 studio apartment was on sale having had its price tag slashed by ?10,000, with a larger ?196,000 apartment now on sale at ?180,000. Further afield, the Bank of Thailand has just announced that detached houses lost 4.1 percent of their value. Many people bought properties in eastern Europe on the back of rental guarantees, according to Frank O'Dwyer, chief executive of the Irish Association of Investment Managers (IAIM). "Rental demand is linked to earnings in a country -- not rental guarantees," he said. "The average wage in Romania is about a tenth of what it is in the EU."

With rental guarantees, agents usually only pay back the money initially paid by the investor to buy the property, according to Tom McGrath, a senior partner with Dublin law firm Tom McGrath & Associates.

Overstretched Irish borrowers are already falling victim to the bursting foreign property bubble. One lender who specialises in overseas finance told this paper about a homeowner who raised ?700,000 in equity on their Dublin home to buy apartments in Turkey, Budapest and Bradford in England.

"The apartments came with a year's rental guarantee," said the lender, who did not wish to be named. "When the guarantee ran out, he realised there was no rental market in those areas. He's put his home as security for these loans, he has no rental income and meanwhile European interest rates have gone up by 2.5 per cent. By the end of this year, Irish people will be struggling to extricate themselves from some of the investments they've made."

- Nick Webb and Louise McBride

http://www.independent.ie/business/f...h-1200467.html

Gegemon добавил 21.10.2007 в 10:12
Здесь про тяжелую жизнь инвесторов
http://www.independent.ie/national-n...e-1200537.html

[Gegemon]

Ну и как всегда МакВильямс с его комментариями ( сегодня без иммигрантов)
http://www.thepost.ie/post/text/stor...&version=print

Crashing property market begins to reveal its casualties
Sunday, 21 October 2007
David McWilliams
Given that house prices are now falling across the board, it means that every valuation made last year was wrong.

In May 1720,William King, the Protestant Archbishop of Dublin, writing about the speculative mania for shares in a company called the South Sea Scheme that had overtaken the city, warned: ‘‘Most who go into this matter are well aware that it will not succeed but hope to sell before the price fall.”

Meanwhile, Richard Cantillon, the great Irish economist, warned about the South Sea speculation frenzy, pointing out that while prices can be kept up ‘‘for months, maybe years . . . a melancholy prospect awaits those who stay in the market last’’.

These warnings were triggered by the announcement in April 1720 that the South Sea Company, the entity issuing shares, would lend against it own stock. This would only mean that before the collapse, prices would rocket higher as people got into debt to the company to buy shares that the company had issued in the first place.

The so-called ‘South Sea Bubble’, which left thousands of Irish investors broke was simply an example of the speculation that has characterised financial markets over the years. (After losing a fortune speculating in the South Sea Company, Isaac Newton mused that he could ‘‘calculate the motions of heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people’’.)

The Irish have been involved in plenty of great frenzies down the years. Amazing as it sounds, in the winter of 1847, when half the country was starving, many Dubliners were up to their necks in debts speculating on Irish shares in the railway companies that were vying to roll out a rail network to a famished country.

In the preceding years, a railway boom across the water had led to mass migration from Ireland to England. An estimated 200,000 Irishmen worked on the British railways. Those ‘navvies’ (which stems from the nickname the ‘navigators’, which was what Irish workers who built the British canals in the 18th century were called) served exactly the same purpose as the Polish labourers on the sites in Ireland now.

Ironically, in 1847 the British parliament suggested that more and more workers would be needed, as there seemed to be no end in sight to railway building. Apparently, the ‘fundamentals’ at the time guaranteed this optimism. But, like all booms, the railway boom came to an abrupt halt when it was least expected. By 1848, railway shares were in freefall, exposing all sorts of malfeasance and skulduggery.

Again, the Irish were so prominent in this carry-on that Charles Dickens based his swindling banker, Mr Merdle, in Little Dorriton an Irish MP, John Sadleir. Little Dorrit was a serialised book published in the late 1850s.

Sadleir, the MP for Carlow, founded the Catholic Defence Association and was a leading figure in the Irish Independence Party. He was found poisoned on Hampstead Heath in 1856, having committed suicide.

Behind the respectability of his political career, Sadleir was a monumental fraudster. He had speculated wildly on railway stocks, defrauding hundreds of small investors as he forged shares in a railway company of which he was chairman.

He also misappropriated ?400,000 from a consortium of Irish banks to cover his losses on railway shares. According to Dickens, Sadleir epitomised the greed of the boom, where no deal was too big to be financed and where other people’s money was there to be used and abused at will.

This is the lesson of all financial frenzies: when things are going well, no one asks any questions, but when the market turns, people get hurt, dodgy practices are exposed and reputations are tarnished.

What the boom hides, the slump exposes and former pin-up boys are often revealed as tricksters. This ebb and flow process was evocatively summed up by Warren Buffett when he said: ‘‘It is only when the tide goes out do you really see who is swimming in the nude.”

A similar development is occurring here as our property frenzy succumbs to the logic of financial gravity. This week we saw a solicitor being hauled into court over claims of questionable mortgage practices and claims that he misused client funds. This will not be the last of these types of stories.

The reason is fairly simple. During the great Irish housing boom, like the South Sea Bubble, the railway mania of the Famine years or the likes of Enron more recently, investors became carried away on the effervescence of easy money. As JP Morgan, the legendary American banker, observed: ‘‘Nothing undermines your financial judgment as much as the sight of your neighbour getting rich.”

This procedure - half virus, half envy - certainly applied here in the past few years as thousands of us joined the great property frenzy. Last year, 59 per cent of all houses bought were purchased either as investments or holiday homes.

More astonishingly, ?8 billion was invested by Irish people in overseas property. At times, it seems as if most of the country is involved.

With so much cash sloshing around, there are bound to be some casualties and bad eggs. But what if, like all previous financial frenzies, there is a systemic failure which almost guarantees fraud?

Think about how money is raised from Irish banks to buy property. The most crucial number is the valuation that the potential investor gets on the relevant property. Given that house prices are now falling across the board, it means that every valuation made last year was wrong.

By definition, every valuation, therefore, overvalued the asset. When the market is rising, everyone has an incentive to overvalue the price of the asset: the valuer because he is often the same estate agent who is selling; the broker because he gets a commission; and the bank because it makes money lending cash. Systemically, the entire edifice is geared to making the upswing more dramatic and downturn more precipitous.

Anyone trying to sell a property bought last year will realise the valuation was wrong. Can they sue the valuer now? No: they were fully aware of the game and, in so many cases, the buyer was aware that the valuer was trying to get the value ‘up’, so that the buyer could get as much leverage as possible. Expect more questionable dealing to be revealed in the next few months.

The Archbishop of Dublin was right: the people who will get really burned are those who hang on longest. Very often, they are the ones who were last in and can least afford it

Gegemon добавил 21.10.2007 в 11:06
Ireland top of house price risk list 21 October 2007 By Kathleen Barrington
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has ranked Ireland at the top of a league table of countries where house price rises cannot be explained by economic fundamentals.

The finding suggests that Ireland is among the countries most vulnerable to a fall in house prices.

House prices in Ireland have risen more, relative to disposable income, than in any other of 18 developed countries surveyed, according to the IMF research.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/st...622-qqqx=1.asp

так что теперь даже ревизионистско-соглашательская теория vdc о мягкой посадке под большим сомнением

Здесь немножко фактов
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...2/pdf/text.pdf
страница 72

[Mr.Val]

Гегемон,

не все так плохо на рынке недвижимости: несмотря на падение цен в большинстве регионов США, все же еше есть места где цены взбираются вверх:

Цены на квартиры в Манхэттене растут несмотря на кризис

3 октября 2007 г.
ac.ru
Средняя цена за квартиру на Манхэттене составила на начало октября 1,37 миллиона долларов, увеличившись с начала года на 6,3%, сообщила риэлторская компания Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Цены на недвижимость в культурном и деловом сердце Нью-Йорка продолжили свой рост даже в традиционное летнее затишье на этом рынке, несмотря на кризис домостроительства, охвативший США.

"Это самые успешные квартальные итоги, которые мы когда-либо имели", - заявила на своем сайте риэлторская Corcoran Group.

Продавцы утверждают, что любая недвижимость на Манхэттене по-прежнему нарасхват, особенно в цене большие квартиры класса люкс. Если в элитарном верхнем восточном Манхэттене средняя стоимость квартиры с тремя-четырьмя спальнями колеблется между 6 и 7 миллионами долларов, увеличившись на 17% с начала года, то на менее престижной западной стороне цены выросли с начала года на 46%. Теперь элитная квартира здесь стоит уже 4,6 миллиона долларов.
Это настоящий бум, говорят эксперты на рынке недвижимости, полагая, что его причина может крыться в притоке иностранных инвесторов, окрыленных ослаблением доллара.

На всей остальной территории США наблюдается стагнация на рынке недвижимости. Самое резкое падение цен наблюдается в Детройте, автомобильной столице страны, где ипотечный кризис совпал со свертыванием крупнейших сборочных конвейеров.

Американские СМИ уверяют, что дом в Детройте теперь стоит дешевле автомобиля, или даже сравнялся в цене с породистой коровой .

В прошлом году число исков о банкротстве домовладельцев достигло 1,2 миллиона, что было на 42% больше, чем в 2005 году. В нынешнем году количество исков уже перевалило за 2 миллиона, эксперты утверждают, что такого кризиса страна не помнит со времен Великой депрессии.

http://realty.newsru.com/article/03Oct2007/manhattan

[Gegemon]

Сообщение от Mr.Val

Цены на квартиры в Манхэттене растут несмотря на кризис

Тогда вопрос - ну что мы будем здесь Манхэтенном считать
Д4 - там одни пенсионеры и политики
Доки?
Д2?
Я не собираюсь спорить с тем, что жилье не будет падать везде.
Будет пара островков - которые уцелеют.
Вопрос только как найти эти безопасные уголки.
На мой взглад - это должно быть что то недооцененное - а расположение не должно сейчас играть особой роли.

ЗЫ - еще немного такой паники, и я со своим 50% прогнозом падения буду казаться неисправимым оптимистом.

[Cuore Sportivo]

Latest update from insider
http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?...91;forum_id]=4

So its coming to the end of October, and I think its fair to say that the past 2 months have been a complete washout.

Dont get me wrong, some properties are selling so long as the price is realistic (c20% below last years boom price). Nonetheless, even at those levels its certainly not guaranteed.
Buyers are simply not there and Banks have stopped throwing the cash about. Fall-throughs are endemic especially if the property is involved in a chain (which most second hand houses are). Having to go sale agreed 3 or 4 times on the same property is normal.

Given the drop in prices and the increases in rent, yields have risen close to c4% - yet still no investors have surfaced. All appear to be sitting tight.

Word from new-home sales are even worse. Given that FTBs have gone AWOL, and the fact that new builds are primarily targeted at this group, this sector is going through a catastophic slump. Developers I have spoken to, and who have been in the business for decades, have described current market conditions as similar to the UK in the 80s. The only building going on relates to the completion of current projects i.e. it would be too costly to stop. Where possible, all new projects have been put on ice ... then in the deep freeze ... then sent packing to the north pole. Literally all residential starts have ceased.

Ominously, non-food retail building has slowed dramaticially too.
Only sector holding up is commercial.

General consensus among my professional developer and investor clients is that the market wont turn for at least another year and a half. Truth is, of course, nobody knows.
From an estate agents prospective a short sharp shock is required as the quicker it happens, the sooner its over. Currently, thats the best we can hope for.

[avsh]

личний опит соискателя ...смотрела дом, цена била 254К, сказали раён хороший, не супер, но как би хороший. Так же еше било 6 домов в той же части. Сейчас, 1 месяц спустя, дом 239К, другие дома сняти с продажи, т.е. их нет на сайте, но не думаю, что их купили... т.е. пока цени падают...и ето заметно

[Korvin]

Лена, если не секрет, в какой стране ето дома за такие деньги?

[avsh]

Сообщение от Korvin

Лена, если не секрет, в какой стране ето дома за такие деньги?

в Ирландии

[СержЪ]

Сообщение от avsh

личний опит соискателя ...смотрела дом, цена била 254К, сказали раён хороший, не супер, но как би хороший. Так же еше било 6 домов в той же части. Сейчас, 1 месяц спустя, дом 239К, другие дома сняти с продажи, т.е. их нет на сайте, но не думаю, что их купили... т.е. пока цени падают...и ето заметно

а на ... зачем ты смотришь на дома ? на зряплатку офисной мышки можно прикупиццо домегом ?

[avsh]

Сообщение от Korvin

Лена, если не секрет, в какой стране ето дома за такие деньги?

в Ирландии, правда Талла, и я сам дом не видела внутри, но пока показатель в том, что цена упала на 15К и меня лично ето радует, и вселяет надежди

avsh добавил 25.10.2007 в 14:31

Сообщение от СержЪ

а на ... зачем ты смотришь на дома ? на зряплатку офисной мышки можно прикупиццо домегом :шоцк: ?

главное все правильно спланировать... било би желание