Gloomy economy forecast

[Anatoli]

а вот и совсем свежыи прогноз от местнои организации, которая (единственная) всегда вызывала у меня уважение к их прогнозам:

Friday, 28 September 2007 07:11

The Government is being urged not to artificially prop up either house prices or building activity.
A report by the Economic and Social Research Institute indicates a sharp decrease in house prices before the year's end.
In its Quarterly Economic Commentary, the institute has significantly reduced its economic growth forecasts and now expects the economy to grow by less than 3% next year.
The slowdown in house building is far sharp than expected, house prices by December could be 15% lower than last year, mortgage repayments could rise further, the possibility of a banking collapse needs to be recognised, and the rapid growth in Government expenditure needs to be halted, according to the report.
The ESRI report also forecasts a 2.7% growth rate for next year.
The institute says the housing slowdown is the dominant influence but that it is part of a process of returning the economy to a sustainable growth path.
As a result the Government should not interfere in the situation, according to the institute.
The report forecasts only 12,000 new job additions in 2008 compared with 80,000 in recent years. It also expects inward migration to drop sharply.
The ESRI says the slowdown in the US economy and the weakness in the value US dollar in particular also represent significant threats to the Irish economy.