The dark side clouds everything. Impossible to see the future.(C)

[vdc]

Сообщение от Bumblebee

Как можно было раскатать губу на такие кредиты в стране, которая ничего не производит, кроме травы и домов?

Фигасе - а Виагра?
Да без нее мир рухнет

[Bumblebee]

vds, я очень не хочу вас разочаровывать, но то, что именно рухнет без виагры - это далеко не весь мир...

Хотя для мужчин..., как знать...

[Mikhael]

да не будет так уж всё плохо
кто приехал капустки подрубить - уедут
а кто приехал жить здесь - тем, после отъезда капусторубителей, дышать станет посвободнее
цены на недвижимость упадут, на продукты слегка поднимутся
но как люди пользовались обслуживающим сектором, так они и будут пользоваться
имеет смысл подумать о коллективной ферме, снять вскладчину ферму в деревне,
разбить на условные участки, и сажать там, что вздумается, так как-то

[Bumblebee]

Все переедут в Леитрим, у нас домов мало, а полей много...

[tadpole]

Сообщение от Mikhael

имеет смысл подумать о коллективной ферме

Ага, ты ещё предложи коммуну построить.

[SPDAY]

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

ESRI warns of recession, job losses and renewed emigration
PAUL TANSEY, Economics Editor

THE ECONOMY will experience a recession this year for the first time since 1983, and a return to net emigration next year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) forecasts in its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary, published today.

It anticipates that the economy will contract in size by 0.4 per cent this year after growing by 4.5 per cent in 2007.

This recession reflects a steep decline in domestic demand, according to the ESRI, which calculates that the volume of domestic spending this year will fall by 2.6 per cent. Investment spending is forecast to fall by 14.9 per cent while real consumer spending growth in 2008 has been revised downwards by the ESRI to just 1 per cent from 3 per cent just three months ago.

Shares in Irish companies fell heavily as news of the report leaked into the market. Bank shares were particularly badly hit, with Bank of Ireland down 5 per cent.

The ESRI expects economic growth to resume next year, with a forecast expansion rate of 1.9 per cent.

However, this will be insufficient to stem a recurrence of net emigration in 2009. The ESRI projects that the outflow of people from the country will reach 20,000 next year, a level of net emigration not seen since 1990.

The reappearance of net emigration signals a steep deterioration in domestic labour market conditions. The ESRI projects that the level of unemployment will increase by 60,000 or 60 per cent between 2007 and 2009.

The unemployment rate - the number out of work as a percentage of the labour force - is expected to climb from 4.5 per cent in 2007 to 6 per cent this year before increasing again to 7.1 per cent in 2009. The numbers at work in the economy next year are forecast to be smaller than in 2007.

Yesterday, the financial services group Hibernian announced plans to move more than 500 jobs to Bangalore in India in the next three years.

The recession will also derail the public finances. From an overall budget surplus of ?5.2 billion in 2006, the Government is expected to incur a deficit of ?7.4 billion in 2009, a turnaround of more than ?12.5 billion in the space of three years.

As a result, the Government's overall budget deficit is projected to reach 3.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009. At this level, it would breach the 3 per cent budget deficit limit imposed by the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact.

The large budget deficits projected for this year and next would cause the burden of the national debt to increase by almost 10 percentage points. The ESRI reckons that government debt as a percentage of GDP would rise from 25.4 per cent in 2007 to 34.5 per cent in 2009.

Reflecting the recessionary environment, house prices are forecast to decline in both 2008 and 2009.

The ESRI estimates that house prices were overvalued by 12.5 per cent in 2007 and it projects a 6.3 per cent decline in house prices this year followed by a further 1.5 per cent fall in 2009. From the new house price peak in February 2007 to the expected trough early in 2009, the ESRI estimates that new house prices will fall by 17 per cent in money terms and 24 per cent when adjusted for inflation.

However, despite the economy receding into recession, upward pressure on consumer prices remains pronounced.

The ESRI has revised its prediction for the rate of consumer price inflation this year to 4.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent three months ago. However, it anticipates that inflation will abate to 3 per cent during 2009.

[vdc]

Сообщение от tadpole

Ага, ты ещё предложи коммуну построить.

Еще немного и до кибуцев договоримся

В тему
Чего то капитально за пропаганду кризиса взялись, похоже решили обвалить сразу, чтобы удовольствие не растягивать и лишних выгнать
Каждый день как фронтовые сводки

Cash crisis: Lenihan to wield axe on spending

THE Government is planning a range of severe cutbacks to bridge the gap in the tax take caused by the growing economic crisis.
As influential economic think tank ESRI predicted that the country was entering a recession, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the Government had "to start taking action now".
"We will have to take resolute, prudent and determined action," he said.
Ministers will learn next week just how far short the tax take has fallen from the mid-year returns, the Central Statistics Office National Accounts -- the official indicator of growth or recession -- and the Central Bank's latest bulletin.

[TYA]

Вчера и сегодня по newstalk - recession главная тема, и похоже будет еще долго.

We have a pRoblem with a capital ‘R’…

[DimaL]

Сообщение от vdc

Каждый день как фронтовые сводки

Видимо решили прогноз ESRI по разделу разворота миграции выполнить досрочно - минус 20 тыс не в следующем, а в этом году.

[vadzen]

Сообщение от vdc

Каждый день как фронтовые сводки

Настораживает.

[vdc]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/11d33426-4...0779fd2ac.html
Там платно

Irish prospects
Published: June 24 2008 09:32 | Last updated: June 24 2008 13:24
There has been much concern about Ireland recently. Earlier this month its population voted against the European Union’s constitutional treaty, sparking speculation that the country might be booted out of the union. On Tuesday the influential Economic and Social Research Institute said it expects Ireland to experience its first recession since 1983.
Talk of ousting Ireland from the EU, just when it is on the verge of becoming a net contributor to its budget, seems overdone. Although benchmark bond yields have inched up since the vote, it is the economy which is causing more gloom among investors. As house prices fall, inflation is soaring. About 1 in 8 workers is employed in construction, so a collapsing property market has hit domestic demand. The economy is very open – exports represent over two-thirds of gross domestic product. A strong euro and a slowing US, which takes a fifth of Ireland’s exports, is thus a nasty combination.
The negatives, though, are well known, and risk overshadowing the economy’s underlying resilience. Households’ real income, even after servicing debt, has risen sharply. Falling house prices may therefore not have as severe an effect on consumption as in the UK or Spain. And, more crucially, the government’s books are in good shape. Net government debt, taking into account contributions to a fund to pay future pensions, is estimated by Moody’s at just 14 per cent of GDP, a level to make Gordon Brown weep with envy.
Fiscal flexibility has important implications. The demographic time bomb, thanks to the government’s pension planning and a relatively young population, will go off later than elsewhere in western Europe. An ambitious public investment programme may have to be pared down, but will still support the construction sector and improve the economy’s growth potential.

Ну и сегодняшний МакВильямс тоже призывает сильно не паниковать

Хотя много паники тоже хорошо - нарыв будет легче вылечить